Should the leaves be changing?
Everyone has an opinion, but scientists hope study will offer proof
|
|
The leaves are beginning to turn along Route 103 in Chester on Wednesday. Vyto Starinskas / Rutland Herald |
Toolbox
By STEFAN HARD Times Argus Staff - Published: September 4, 2008
Are the leaves changing early this year?
Opinions differ, but discussions whether the foliage is already changing - or whether it will be a good foliage year - quickly turn for some to the issue of global climate change.
It turns out a group of University of Vermont scientists in Underhill Center are more than just wondering about a possible connection between climate change and fall foliage. They're gearing up for a major study looking into how climate change may affect the annual wardrobe change of the mighty maple.
Three scientists at UVM's Proctor Maple Research Center in Underhill Center are preparing to embark on a new research program in October that will delve into whether milder average temperatures due to global climate change may affect fall foliage.
Center Director Tim Perkins, who believes it is the first study of its kind, said work will go on indoors in the center's labs with maple seedlings, and outdoors with larger maples. Critical to the study will be the ability to control both daytime and nighttime temperatures around the trees.
A $45,000 USDA Hatch Grant will fund the three-year research program beginning Oct. 1. The study will employ the specialties of scientists Perkins, Abby van den Berg, and Tom Vogelmann.
Perkins said weather data indicates a long-term climate shift toward milder minimum temperatures year-round in the Northeast, where it is believed maple trees thrive in part because of cold winters.
Scientists want to know how the milder low temperatures might affect maples, but there have been no laboratory studies of the temperature shift on the trees' foliage chemistry.
The UVM scientists are not the only ones in Vermont with a keen interest in the subject. Those in the tourist industry are highly dependent on both the timing and intensity of the foliage season.
Timing of the color change is important for planning and advance bookings; intensity affects the all-so-important aesthetics of the season.
Van den Berg has been conducting research at the center on factors that go into maple foliage since 1999, including studying the pigmentation of maple leaves and whether the annual color changes help the tree survive the death of its leaves each fall. But she said she's been thinking about the effects of temperature on fall foliage all that time, and now she is excited to have the opportunity to be part of a systematic study of the issue.
"It's still a mysterious process: There's a lot we don't know," said van den Berg of the factors that go into the fall colors. "It's an important process to understand. This study is spurred by concern over climate change and how it might impact the fall foliage, which is very important economically and culturally to the region."
Burr Morse, who owns and operates Morse Farm Sugarworks in East Montpelier, has been vocal in his concern about climate change's affect on maple trees, both in foliage and sap production; he's even brought his concerns before a congressional panel. His business is both a tourist draw with its gift shop and maple museum of sorts, and a maple sugar production facility with a working sugarhouse, so he's dependent on both fall tourism traffic and the health of his sugarbush.
"It seems like we haven't had a good foliage season for a couple of years running," Morse said. "Now, I don't know if global warming is to blame, but I'm worried about it."
Morse doesn't think this year's foliage is coming any earlier than usual, but he's keeping an eye on it. He has a particular maple that he watches for signs of the change, and even posts daily images of the maple on the Morse Farm Web site each fall.
In St. Johnsbury, Fairbanks Museum's Eye on the Sky meteorologist Steve Bouchard said he thinks he's been seeing some signs of an early foliage change in St. Johnsbury and around his home in Lyndonville.
"People have been noticing, myself included, that the color has been coming out on some trees, perhaps stressed trees," Bouchard said. "It's not unheard of to see it this early, but it's a little earlier than usual, I suspect."
Bouchard speculated that this summer's unusually cool weather and record rainfall might affect the timing and intensity of the foliage change. He noted that this season has featured milder nighttime temperatures and cooler daytime temperatures for the bulk of the summer.
Van den Berg said she doesn't think the foliage change is coming earlier this year, but she notes there is normally a large variation in the season from year to year and from location to location in Vermont. But it's the longer term trends that she is more interested in.
36