Economists disagree
Toolbox
By Brent Curtis Staff Writer - Published: November 6, 2009
Economists representing the developer and opponents of a proposed 53,000-square-foot shopping plaza on Route 7 presented contrasting financial forecasts to the town's Development Review Board.
Speaking before a gathering of about 60 residents who filled chairs in the Brandon Senior Citizens' Center Wednesday night, economists Richard Heaps and Nicholas Rockler presented very different views of how the proposed retail center, anchored by a Hannaford supermarket, would affect the town's fortunes.
Heaps, who was hired by developer William McCabe to conduct a financial impact study as part of the project's Act 250 land use review, told the six-member review board that the proposed supermarket, six retail sites and potential restaurant or bank on the southern end of town could mean close to 200 jobs in the region — and most likely within Brandon's borders.
"The model predicts a net gain of 187 new jobs," Heaps said.
Those new jobs would be offset, he said, by a small number of job losses elsewhere in Rutland and Addison counties. The 17 job losses he predicted would come from other supermarkets, retailers or restaurants that would see sales decline because of the new shopping center.
Heaps said he couldn't predict where the jobs would be lost or whether the new plaza would force local businesses to close.
But the competitive impacts of the proposed development were secondary to Heaps' primary concern — whether the center would create an "unreasonable burden" on the municipality and its school system. Answering those questions is an important part of the Act 250 review.
After estimating the costs the town would incur from new students entering the school system and municipal services the plaza would need, Heaps said the estimated $7,777,382 addition to the grand list from the project would not only pay for any additional expenses, but bring the town an extra $2,136 a year.
"From my standpoint that's not a major bonus, but the important part is that the project would not be a burden, never mind an unreasonable one," Heaps said.
But those predictions rang false to Rockler, whose analysis of the project's impacts focused on the town's ability to sustain a retail market that would double if the proposed plaza was built.
Presently, Brandon's downtown retail district contains about 54,000 square feet of space, Rockler said.
"I don't think there's any doubt that only so much money in town can go into retail purchases," he said. "Brandon faces a potential loss of businesses in the center of town if this project moves forward."
Using local retail sales receipts of $13.2 million in 2007, Rockler estimated that the new plaza would do at least $11 million of business annually.
"Can the town support $24 million in retail sales? No," Rockler said.
Dozens of residents questioned both economists during the two-hour discussion of the project with the majority of comments being critical of the project.
Maurice Racine, the former administrative officer for the town, also weighed in on the project by delivering a letter to the board that denounced the proposed plaza as a form of sprawl.
"Peripheral and irresponsible development leaves the center of the town with many empty storefronts," Racine said. "This is unsightly and obviously will result in a lower economic tax base. I am now gravely concerned that this proposed mall, if allowed to be built, will have just such a negative and irreversible impact on our town."
The Review Board, which listened to testimony on the project for the third time in less than a month, recessed the meeting Wednesday with plans to reconvene on Dec. 7.
brent.curtis@rutlandherald.com
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