MONTPELIER — The federal government's poverty level guidelines will drop in 2010 for possibly the first time ever, changing the qualifications for a host of programs ranging from state-subsidized health insurance to food stamps.

The reduction in what the federal government considers poverty could result in Vermonters either losing benefits they now receive or seeing a decrease in their subsidies depending on their annual household income.

For example, for a single person to qualify for a state or federal program that covers up to 100 percent of the federal poverty level they would need to make less than $906 a month. Starting next year, that benchmark changes to $899 a month for a single person.

Seven dollars may not seem like a dramatic shift, but the gap increases for larger families, according to Peter Sterling, the executive director of the organization Vermont Campaign for Health Care Security.

Sterling said the decrease in what the federal government considers poverty could have low-to-moderate income Vermonters paying more for their services or suddenly discovering they make too much to apply for help they are getting now.

"This will impact everything from food stamps to home heating fuel assistance," said Sterling. "How many people are making 299 percent of the federal poverty level and will soon find out that they no longer qualify for services?"

The federal government first began gauging what the federal poverty level is — the minimum amount a person can makes to be considered in poverty — in December 1965, setting the rate as $1,540 a year for a single person or $3,130 for a family of four. At the time, the median income in the United States was $6,882, according to Census date.

In 2007, when the median income was $50,233 a year, the federal poverty level was set at $10,210 for a single person and $20,650 for a family of four. Creating a new federal poverty level involves a complicated calculation that is tied to the country's consumer price index, similar to how benefits for Social Security are decided.

The 2010 federal poverty level numbers have not officially been released yet from the federal government and are expected to be announced at the end of January 2010 and take effective in the first few months of that year.

But Kim LaFrance, a benefit programs administrator for the Vermont Department of Children and Families, which coordinates the state's welfare and food stamps program, said statisticians ran the calculations used to determine the federal poverty level and have found that they are scheduled to drop.

That was not thrilling news for Vermont officials — and likely their counterparts in the other 48 states.

"We're not too happy with this news and it has generated a lot of discussion," LaFrance said. "We have heard that there may be some federal legislation afoot to stop this lowering of the FPL, but it's not clear yet what the impact will be."

LaFrance said the state of Vermont's calculations show that, depending on household size, the federal poverty level will shift between $3 and $77. She said their analysis suggests that this is the first time ever that the levels will be downgraded — they are usually increased slightly each year.

"The people that this will affect the most are the ones right on the edge," LaFrance said. "If they are close to one of these federal poverty level lines, they could be at risk."

Qualifications for many state programs are based on the federal government's poverty level, including many of its health insurance services, such as the Vermont Health Access Plan and Catamount Health. The result of the change may mean a jump in premium costs.

For example, Sterling said a family of four making about $4,150 a month with two parents on Catamount Health and two kids on Dr. Dynasaur would now fall in the 225 percent of the federal poverty level bracket. They pay about $245 a month for the family's health insurance premiums.

With the lower federal poverty level, the family now is categorized as more than 250 percent of the level, although their income has not changed. Their premiums will increase, Sterling said, to $358 a month, a boost of more than 50 percent over what they are paying now.

LaFrance said the state is hopeful that Congress will block the adjustment of the federal poverty levels. But with the new numbers scheduled to be officially released at the end of January 2010 and implemented a month later, the clock is ticking.

She said she doesn't want to see a situation where the new levels are implemented and then changed again by Congress, upsetting and confusing those who receive assistance because of their low income.

According to the offices of Sens. Patrick Leahy and Bernard Sanders, a Vermont Democrat and a Vermont independent, legislation freezing the poverty level at the 2009 amount is being discussed.

"Our fingers are crossed," LaFrance said.

A representative of the federal government could not be reached Monday for comment.

daniel.barlow@timesargus.com