Plenty to worry about, but stocks did well in 2012
The New York Times | December 30,2012
If there was one word that applied to investing this year, it was uncertainty.
But there were different kinds of uncertainty. To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, the former defense secretary, this year there were uncertain uncertainties and certain uncertainties.
Some of the uncertain uncertainties were the European debt crisis, China’s handling of its stalled growth and leadership transition, and the U.S. presidential election.
The fiscal-cliff negotiations were a certain uncertainty. No one I spoke to throughout the year thought the talks would be concluded in a tidy fashion with weeks to spare, and they were certainly right.
‘’There has been a lot to worry about this year,” said Gregg Fisher, president and chief investment officer of Gerstein Fisher, a wealth management firm in New York. “The other problem with uncertainty is we’re worried about what other people are worried about. This creates huge amount of uncertainty without a path.”
Despite the worry, stocks in the United States had a good year, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 up more than 12 percent even with the declines of the last week. More than that, Neeti Bhalla, head of tactical asset allocation at Goldman Sachs private wealth management, pointed out that this was the first year since 2009 in which the S&P did not drop below its starting point for the year, 1,258.
‘’That was important because at no point this year did people feel a negative return in their equity portfolio,” Bhalla said. “You had pullbacks this year, but you never got to a negative experience.”
So what did investors do in a year that was full of uncertainty yet actually quite strong in terms of returns? The opposite of what they should have done: measurements of cash flows showed that investors took money out of equity funds while continuing to put money into fixed income, even though financial advisers were concerned that a slight drop in the price of bonds like Treasuries could quickly result in investors losing money.
‘’They were looking for stability in the fixed-income markets,” said Barbara Reinhard, chief investment strategist for Credit Suisse Private Bank. “The big thing is investors held onto the recent past and couldn’t get out of their own way.”
Of course, even the professionals would not fault the average investor for being scared by so much uncertainty. Chris Blum, global head of equities at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, said he liked to show clients a series of charts of stock returns over many decades.
The trend is up despite periods of declines. But he knows that’s not enough to convince them.