Vt revenues seen on the upswingBy LISA RATHKE
The Associated Press | July 24,2013MONTPELIER — Vermont’s revenue forecast is showing a slight improvement, with general fund and transportation fund collections expected to be up in fiscal year 2014, two consulting economists said Tuesday.
The economists said they expect a slight increase from their January forecast of 0.3 percent in the general fund to $4 million for the fiscal year and a 7.4 percent increase in the transportation fund to $17.2 million, primarily from the recent change in the gas tax. But the economists predicted a slight decrease in the education fund — a modest $500,000 drop.
Economist Thomas Kavet said the state ended the last fiscal year 1.5 percent above expectations, which is a plus, but that the economic recovery has been slow.
“At this stage of this business cycle we’d usually be looking at a much more vigorous recovery,” he said. “We’d normally be having accelerating rates of growth, and we’re not. And the reason is the headwinds that exist from federal fiscal policy.”
Kavet added, “So we’ve got on the one hand monetary policy that’s just full blast — you know, interest rates as low as they could possibly be — and now we’ve fiscal policy that’s doing the opposite, that’s weighing on things and holding things back.”
The 410 layoffs at IBM in Vermont last month haven’t been factored into the data, but they “will likely only postpone Vermont’s full labor market recovery by a few months from what had looked to be ‘on course’ for a completion sometime later during the calendar year,” said a report from Jeffrey Carr of Economic and Policy Resources Inc. of Williston.
“The only redeeming aspect to the IBM layoffs is that they come at a time when the Vermont economy is in its best position — with a general upward trajectory to its labor markets — to absorb any displaced workers,” compared with four to five years ago, he said.
Vermont’s unemployment rate continues to be lower than the jobless rate in the U.S. and the lowest in New England for 24 consecutive months, Kavet’s report said.
Vermont’s rooms and meals revenues also benefited from a strong ski season, with snowfall during key holidays and snowstorms in core markets of southern New England and mid-Atlantic states.
Gov. Peter Shumlin said Vermont is on the right track.
“We just got to keep on doing what we’re doing and grow jobs,” he said.MORE IN Vermont News
- Most Popular
- Most Emailed
- RICHARD'S POOR ALMANACK: On this day 1739, 'Richard Palmer' identified in prison at York Castle as the notorious outlaw DICK TURPIN; IN 1836, Battle of the Alamo begins near San Antonio de Bexar, Texas; 1896, the Tootsie Roll invented by LEO HIRSCHFELD.
- RICHARD'S POOR ALMANACK: On this day in 1472, Orkney, Shetland islands put up as collateral by Norway to Scotland in lieu of dowry for MARGARET OF DENMARK on her marriage with JAMES III, king of Scotland; 1962, JOHN GLENN first American to orbit Earth.
- TOMORROW'S HEADLINES TODAY: City mayoral candidates debate campaign issues; Hartford, Conn., woman still missing; Neal Goswami reports attempts to legislate suicide; local woman loses 100 pounds through TOPS program.
- RICHARD'S POOR ALMANACK: On this day in 1878, JOHN TUNSTALL murdered near Lincoln, New Mexico, by the outlaw JESSE EVANS; in 1930, ELM FARM OLLIE first cow to fly in aircraft, first to be milked airborne; 1955, nuke test WASP; '79, snow in Sahara.
- TOMORROW'S HEADLINES TODAY: Rutland Herald News Editor Alan J. Keays and staff writer Gordon Dritschilo discuss stories planned for the February 18, 2015, edition of the newspaper: Winter budgets maxed, legal marijuana, Springfield bank job, USPS slowdown
- RICHARD'S POOR ALMANACK: On this day in 1249 AD, ANDRE of LONGJUMEAU is dispatched by LOUIS IX of France to meet the KHAGAN, ruler of the Mongol Empire; in 1804, during 1st Barbary War, STEPHEN DECATUR scuttles the pirate-held USS Philadelphia in Tripoli.